| Author: John Erwin |
Are you trading or are you gambling? The answer, of course, is "Yes".
My Webster's dictionary's defines "gamble" thusly: "(vt) to take a risk in order to gain some advantage," and, "(n) an act or undertaking involving risk of a loss."
By these definitions, if you are a trader you are a gambler. The more important question is, then, are you a WINNING gambler (day trader, trader, investor . . .) or a LOSING gambler (day trader, trader, investor . . .)? In one of my recent articles, I referred to an undisciplined, haphazard trader as being neither a trader nor an investor, but "simply a gambler." What I should have called such a person, rather than "simply a gambler", was "simply an incompetent gambler (or incompetent trader or incompetent investor)."
So, what is the difference between a winning gambler (day trader, trader, investor . . .) and a losing gambler (day trader, trader, investor . . .)? Who is the most successful gambler in a casino? The house, of course. This is because the house has the odds on every game slightly in their favor, they keep their bets small (even a very large bet for an individual is very small for the casino in relation to the size of their total pot), and they play absolutely without emotion. The house knows that over x number of bets, if they have an edge in the odds of just a small percentage, where x is a very large number, they will come out ahead by a steady and predictable amount. The casino is a consistently winning gambler.
So, what do you as a trader have to do to be a consistently winning trader? Recognize that you are gambling, and play like the winning gamblers play. Whether you are investing in stock, day trading futures or forex, or trading longer time frames, your investment or trading strategy must have the same key elements that winning gamblers have in their systems.
Your trading system, whether a day trading system or a system for multiple day trades, or your long term investment strategy, should have the same advantages as the casino owners: Your trading signals combined with your trade management should tilt the risk slightly in your favor, you should keep your total capital commitment on each trade very small in relation to your total capital, and you should trade entirely without emotion.
In order to provide these key elements, your trading system, whether you create it yourself or buy a system "off the shelf", must have the following characteristics: It must give you clear, objective entry and exit rules; it must give you an overall advantage over the market INCLUDING allowing for slippage and commissions; and it must be a system that fits your personality such that you can operate it without emotion.
If your day trading system, swing trading system, or long term investment strategy does not provide these three key elements, then you will be a losing trader and an unsuccessful investor. If your system gives you clear entry and exit criteria, shifts the odds slightly in your favor, and allows you to trade objectively and without emotion, then you cannot fail. |
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